USDA has soybean yield estimates rising to If record production estimates persist along with uncertainty in demand and export markets, corn and soybean prices are likely to move even lower. However, if yield estimates are modified to pull back the supply of commodities while other supply and demand conditions hold, prices could potentially rise. As a result of reduced demand, old-crop ending stocks are rising. USDA currently estimates 2. With 25 million bushels of imported corn and 2.
Feed and residual use was estimated to be 5. Using these estimates, ending stocks would be 2. As harvest approaches, analyzing yield possibilities gives a first look into potential production levels of supply for the new crop year and, in turn, offers insight into crop prices. Unfavorable weather conditions could result in low yields, especially if most recent dry conditions have shortened the maturing stages of crops. This would also push supply estimates lower.
Overall, one would expect soybean to have a relative economic advantage in these areas relative to corn. Outside the I-states, geographical trends continue.
The eastern corn belt of Indiana and Ohio tend to have lower corn-to-soybean yield ratios. Western Kansas and western Nebraska also had low ratios. Higher corn-to-soybean yield ratios tend to be in Iowa, much of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and eastern North and South Dakota. Across the Midwest, higher yields for both corn and soybeans tend to predominate in the heart of the corn belt.
Higher corn yields relative to soybean yields tend to predominate in Iowa, Minnesota, and eastern Dakotas. Higher soybean yields relative to corn yields tend to predominate in the eastern corn belt and parts of the Great Plains. If soybean prices suggest that soybeans will be more profitable than corn, more of the shift to soybeans likely will occur in areas with lower corn-to-soybean yield ratios, particularly in the I-states.
Corn and soybean production tend to predominate in the I-states. Other factors are more likely to come into play in other regions. Similarly, if prices suggest corn will be more profitable than soybeans, more of the acreage shift likely will occur in those areas with higher corn-to-soybean yield ratios. Schnitkey, G. Swanson, N. Paulson, C.
However, because Oregon, Washington, Arizona, and Idaho do not have anywhere near as many planted corn acres and therefore harvested corn , they produce significantly less corn than Midwestern states. The causes of year-to-year crop and soybean yield variations at the state and national level are: The Technology Trend — many types of technology are improving yields for both soybeans and corn.
The result is an increase in how much corn crop per acre can be produced on a piece of farmland. The charts below show corn and soybean yields from to as reported by the USDA. The corn yield estimate is as follows for major corn producing states:.
Other recent Iowa average corn yields include bushels per acre in , bushels per acre in , bushels per acre yield in and the current record statewide corn yield of bushels per acre in Other recent U. USDA is now estimating total harvested soybean acreage at USDA is projecting the U.
The estimated soybean yield compares to other recent national average soybean yields of The USDA report lists nine states that are likely to have a record statewide soybean yield in , again including the important production states of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. The estimated soybean yield for the top soybean production states include:.
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